As the conflict in the Middle East extends beyond six weeks and fuel prices have surged, consumers are beginning to feel the impact. One sector experiencing immediate effects is air travel, which is approaching its busiest time of year. Rising inflation had already been driving up airfares, but now there is an added element of uncertainty.
Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has painted a grim picture of the global consequences of what he described as “the most significant energy crisis ever faced.” This crisis is a result of disruptions in the supply of oil, gas, and other essential resources through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Birol, Europe may only have about six weeks of jet fuel left, raising concerns of potential flight cancellations in the near future if the supply chain remains disrupted due to the conflict in Iran. Experts interviewed by CBC News have expressed deep concerns about the escalating situation.
John Gradek, an aviation management lecturer at McGill University, emphasized the severity of the crisis, stating that it surpasses previous challenges like 9/11 and the COVID-19 pandemic because of the unprecedented supply chain disruptions. He highlighted the critical role of fuel in air travel and the challenges faced by the industry in restoring refining capacity in the region.
The cost of air travel has been on the rise, with international fares increasing by eight percent and domestic fares by nearly 14 percent from January 2025 to March 2026, driven by strong demand. Consumers are now faced with the dilemma of whether to book flights well in advance to secure current prices or wait in the hope of a price drop, which may be risky given the current market conditions.
Airlines are responding to the soaring jet fuel costs by adding fuel surcharges or incorporating fuel expenses into base fares. With fuel being a significant operating cost for airlines, the spike in prices poses a major challenge to the industry. The uncertainty surrounding future fuel supplies is a more pressing concern than the actual cost of fuel for airlines.
Experts advise travelers to book flights promptly, as prolonged high fuel prices are likely to lead to further fare increases. Airlines are already taking measures such as consolidating flights on low-demand routes to mitigate the impact of rising costs. The situation is particularly critical for European and Asian airlines facing supply shortages, potentially leading to flight cancellations and capacity reductions.
Travelers are encouraged to consider off-peak travel times and destinations to mitigate the effects of rising fuel costs on airfares. The unpredictability in fuel prices and supply chain disruptions could result in more volatile pricing for long-haul flights. While airlines rarely add charges after ticket purchase, the unprecedented circumstances may lead to unforeseen changes in ticket prices in the near future.
