The Parti Québécois has been leading in the polls for almost two years, with their leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s pledge to conduct a referendum on Quebec sovereignty in his initial term causing ripples all the way to the federal capital.
Government officials under Prime Minister Mark Carney have been deliberating on how Ottawa should address the PQ’s assertions in Quebec City, as per sources from Radio-Canada. Key figures including the prime minister, his Quebec representative, and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc have been engaged in these discussions, as confirmed by two Liberal insiders.
The objective, as one source revealed, is not for the federal government to counterbalance the PQ but to ensure a consistent message from Ottawa’s elected representatives. Despite the PQ holding a significant lead in the polls, the outcome of Plamondon’s election in the provincial vote slated for October 2026 remains uncertain, emphasizing the potential for shifts in the political landscape.
Ottawa aims to avoid being caught off guard, as some criticized Jean Chrétien’s government for during the 1995 referendum on Quebec sovereignty. A Liberal source emphasized the necessity of proactive planning, highlighting the emergence of social media influencers backing the “yes” campaign and the need to focus on engaging with young people, acknowledging the evolving dynamics since 1995.
The immediate focus is on demonstrating the benefits of the Canadian federation to Quebecers and showcasing that Canada is functional, as per the same source. However, there is a clear stance that the past sponsorship scandal will not be revisited.
Regarding the impending referendum, Carney’s new Quebec representative, Joël Lightbound, emphasized the current priority of delivering employment opportunities and economic growth for Quebecers. Additionally, the government aims to highlight its role in promoting culture in Quebec.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly made direct criticisms of Plamondon, insinuating that his approach could weaken Quebec in the face of the United States. This sparked reactions from various quarters, with the Bloc Québécois exploiting the situation to criticize the federal government’s stance on sovereignty.
Conservative Party sources are also gearing up for the potential referendum, understanding its significance in Canadian politics post-2026. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre stressed the importance of national identity and recognizing Quebec nationalism within Canadian patriotism, emphasizing decentralization and respect for Quebec’s jurisdiction.
There are concerns among federalists that support for Quebec may diminish, particularly from English-speaking regions, with fears of a lack of solidarity in the event of a referendum. This contrasts with the outpouring of support seen in Montreal before the 1995 referendum, raising apprehensions about the response from the rest of Canada in the future.
