The largest tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump were invalidated by the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday. However, the fate of the $133 billion in import taxes already collected remains uncertain. Companies are seeking refunds, but the process ahead could be chaotic.

Trade lawyers anticipate that importers will eventually receive refunds, although the journey may be tumultuous. The refund procedure is expected to involve the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency, the Court of International Trade in New York, and other lower courts, as outlined by lawyers at Clark Hill.

Following the court’s decisive rejection of Trump’s tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, questions remain about how the collected funds will be returned to importers. The Supreme Court deemed Trump’s use of emergency powers to enforce the levies under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act invalid.

While the U.S. customs agency has gathered $133 billion in IEEPA tariffs, consumers may not receive compensation for the increased prices paid due to the tariffs. Justice Brett Kavanaugh expressed concern about the complex refund process and predicted potential legal battles in the coming years.

The end of IEEPA tariffs could alleviate inflationary pressures and stimulate spending, although the impact is projected to be modest. Refunds are estimated to take 12 to 18 months to be processed, with the U.S. customs agency expected to adapt its refund mechanism for Trump’s IEEPA tariffs.

Companies such as Costco, Revlon, and Bumble Bee Foods have already initiated lawsuits to claim refunds, signaling more legal challenges ahead. Consumers may not benefit directly from refunds due to the difficulty of attributing increased prices to specific tariffs.

As the refund process unfolds, uncertainties persist on how the government will manage the substantial demand for refunds. Importers may face obstacles in reclaiming fees collected unlawfully, potentially leading to prolonged legal disputes and challenges.