Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded in the Caribbean, is poised to make landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday after undergoing a rapid intensification process, a phenomenon increasingly linked to severe storms in the region. Initially a tropical storm on Saturday morning, Melissa swiftly escalated from 115 kilometers per hour to 225 kilometers per hour wind speeds within a day, reaching Category 5 hurricane status by Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, the storm’s winds had peaked at 281 kilometers per hour, making it the strongest storm globally in 2025.
Due to its slow movement, Melissa poses a significant threat, as stated by Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the U.K.’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science. The storm’s sluggish pace increases the risk of prolonged heavy rainfall over Jamaica. Melissa has already resulted in six fatalities across the Caribbean, prompting Jamaica to brace for a potentially catastrophic hurricane event. Parts of the nation might experience up to a meter of rainfall, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Last year, Jamaica’s southern region suffered losses amounting to about $200 million US, equivalent to 1.1 percent of the country’s GDP, due to Hurricane Beryl, which also underwent rapid intensification. Deoras attributes Melissa’s strength to two primary factors: abnormally high ocean surface temperatures in the Caribbean, exceeding normal levels by two to three degrees, and the energy tropical storms derive from warm ocean waters. Melissa capitalized on these warm conditions, rapidly intensifying as it traversed the region over the weekend.
The increase in ocean heat globally is altering climate systems, with a significant heatwave in the Pacific Ocean causing unusual temperatures in North America this fall. Last year, sea surface temperatures reached record highs worldwide. Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central, notes that climate change has made hot ocean temperatures 500 to 700 times more probable. Climate Central’s analysis indicates that climate change has bolstered Melissa’s top wind speed by about 16 km/h, potentially elevating the storm’s damage costs by 50 percent.
Winkley highlights that four out of this season’s five hurricanes have undergone extreme rapid intensification, a phenomenon not as prevalent in the past but now occurring almost every season, if not multiple times per season. This trend underscores the evolving impact of climate change on hurricane dynamics.
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